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Friday, January 23, 2015

QZ8501: UNANSWERED QUESTIONS FOR THE CRASH INVESTIGATION



Hello World,


Recent news reports quote a transport minister who claims #QZ8501 'climbed too fast.' The Preliminary Crash Report is yet to be released. Also, the report will not be publicly released.

The analysis of the FDR/CVR data is going on and the Preliminary Report is yet to be released but a transport minister is announcing that as per radar data, the aircraft climbed too fast or faster than normal. With the report out of public view, there is now way the general public can ever learn about the true cause of the incident. All we have to rely on will be the ‘Official Announcements’ based on ‘Reports Based on Evidences.’ 

 I think, we are being guided away from some critical information and I wish to discuss these unmentioned or rather less-covered areas of the QZ8501 story. 



Here are some pictures that I caught my attention:


Source:


 Source:


Look at the underwater images closely and we will notice that the right wing is very close to the ground and the left wing is not so visible. No information on the state of engine-debris so far (mysteriously). Nobody has asked any question in this regard so far (as far as I know).

We got carried away with the recovery of the tail-section debris and the discovery of the fuselage. I think we need to wait until some engine debris is recovered. If the right wing is intact with the fuselage, the engine below it has to be crushed under it or broken and thrown somewhere nearby. Any major disintegration of the engine during the fall might have seriously damaged the right wing and we wouldn’t have noticed it (like the left wing that is missing).

Why hasn’t anyone asked anything about the debris status of other sections of the aircraft, especially the engines? 


Source: https://twitter.com/RadiantPhysics [@RadiantPhysics]

If the image above indicates the actual trajectory of #QZ8501 during its final moments of its crash, then we need to investigate the reason behind the 'leftward-spiraling' trajectory, especially from 23:17:43 to 23:19:46. In a time period of about 2 minutes, the aircraft has descended quick while following a left-ward spiraling trajectory. When two engines are pulling with the same thrust, the aircraft is supposed to fly straight. if the aircraft has spiraled down quick, turning left all the way down, then either the left engine was not operating the same way as the right engine or the aircraft got locked into a 'left-bank' state. Aircraft tend to descend during turns/banking maneuver. If the aircraft turned but did not recover from the descent profile during turn/bank, either the control system failed or the left engine blew out. This may not be 'the cause' but this is definitely a possibility which, for some reason hasn't been discussed yet or ruled out.

Is this possibility [Engine Blowout/Control System Failure] being considered in the 'List of Potential Causes' for the accident? If it has been ruled out, what part of the CVR/FDR data substantiate the ruling out of this possibility?





The 3-seat debris image also seems to have minor burn marks on the seats. The plastic bags of the oxygen masks seem melted. These debris have been subject to harsh environments and spent considerable time under water and therefore these marks cannot be used to conclude on fire. However, when most of the metal-rod elements of the seat debris are clean, some portions of it are ‘blackened.’ 


Also the investigation or the recovery team has not mentioned anything about the state of the bodies that have been recovered so far. The bodies in almost all media images are enclosed in body-bags and therefore we cannot make any comments on that. In one way, that at least protects the privacy of the deceased. None of the concerned authorities have so far commented anything on the state of the bodies or the result of the post-mortem tests that may have been conducted on them. The cause of death as identified from post-mortem reports can guide us better in terms of ascertaining the accident event-chain that resulted in the crashing of the aircraft in the ocean.



Why hasn’t anyone asked about the state of the bodies that have been recovered or the post-mortem results? (If the bodies have burn marks, then there must have been a fire incident onboard during the sequence of events that led to the crash)
 



                                                                                  Source:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30632735




The underwater image above shows ‘streaks’ on the aircraft skin. The paint has been ‘scratched’ off the skin. To me, this doesn’t look like a result of salt-water erosion. I think, this is a result of debris striking the aircraft, post-disintegration, most probably in air, during the aircraft’s fall into the ocean. 

After the tail section was recovered, the rescue/recovery team was still looking for the fuselage, which indicates that the tail and the fuselage were far apart from each other on the ocean floor. This is another indication for the possibility of a mid-air disintegration of the aircraft. However, there is always a chance of strong water currents moving debris around.

Summing up, the Chief Investigator has informed that the crash was not due to ‘icing’ and the transport minister has said the aircraft climbed ‘faster than usual.’ For some reason there is no mention of the state of the victims’ bodies recovered, no discussion about the victims’ ‘cause-of-death’ and no mention of engine debris or the left wing that is missing in the under-water image. The preliminary crash report will also not be publicly released. 

I think they are setting up the situation for 'Error-by-Omission' and/or 'Erroneous Maneuver' where they can comfortably conclude that the pilot gave 'Excessive Elevator & Throttle Inputs' which led to 'stalling' that played 'significant' role in endangering the aircraft eventually paving way for a catastrophic event. In other words they might just end up saying that the pilot did something wrong and failed do something right when things went from bad to worse and eventually beyond control. Frankly, any other reason will render the operator or manufacturer at fault.

All I have to ask is: 

Why are the state of bodies recovered not being discussed along with post-mortem results? 

(They don't have to show the bodies but they can definitely declare their states during their discovery)


Why is no one concerned about learning the cause of death of the victims? 


(The crash is a big event but death can happen due to various reasons such as asphyxiation or burning or non-penetrating trauma or drowning)

What 'Chain of Events' forced the pilots to do whatever they did?
(Those are the key elements of the root-cause rather than pilot-action which was merely a response to an emergency situation)

If the aircraft was 'completely fine' until the crash, why is the plane found in bits, scattered around the ocean floor?


Who is being protected here and why?

Sincerely hoping, these and many other details of the investigation will eventually get out so the general public and aviation industry can get  a realistic view of the unfortunate incident and possibly learn from it to improve safety.

If asking these questions make me look like an idiot, then I don't have any problem in accepting that I am an idiot who wants to learn the real reason behind the death of  innocents. 

I am Crazy Motts after all. The human inside me just can't stand by and watch people die and investigations getting polished off to neutral or blame-the-dead conclusions.

Some References:


http://www.straitstimes.com/st/print/3351627
http://www.wcarn.com/news/40/40933.html


Regards,